中国地震保险市场的演化博弈均衡——政府预防性补贴和救济性给付分析

我国应对地震风险的资金安排可以按事前与事后划分为灾前预防性质和灾后给付性质。在非预期预算一定的情况下,政府应如何分配救灾基金？对地震保险市场均衡影响如何？本文构建了一个三方演化博弈模型,分析发现政府适度的灾后救济能够同时保证效率与公平,而过度的灾后救济会在长期提高居民的救灾预期,抑制商业地震保险市场的形成与完善。同时,引导与改善社会风险管理意识和风险感知也是提高地震保险市场效率的关键。     

非国有股东治理与企业资本运营效率——监管方式的调节作用

提升企业的资本运营效率是国资国企改革要解决的重要问题,以混合所有制改革和“管资本”为主的监督制度转型为背景,采用2008~2019年上市公司数据,从股权治理和高管治理的两个方面,探讨了非国有股东治理对企业资本运营效率的影响,以及监管方式的调节作用。研究发现:非国有股东治理能够有效提升企业的资本运营效率,清单监管方式和大数据监管方式正向调节了非国有股东治理与企业资本运营效率之间的关系。研究对于协同推进混合所有制改革和国资监管体制改革以提升企业资本运营效率有一定的现实意义。     

“政策市”下的中国企业实物投资机理研究

在我国市场经济发展的过程中,某些具有不确定性和投资不可逆性的产业市场容易出现投资过热问题.这时政府往往频繁出台一系列宏观调控政策以规范市场,但效果不佳.为此从研究该类市场的投资主体—企业的投资决策机理的角度出发,通过引入实物期权的理论,给出了在完善和平稳发展的市场条件下及在政府政策冲击的市场条件下,价格分别服从单纯的几何布朗运动及混合的几何布朗运动/泊松跳跃过程的企业最佳投资规则及其临界价格,并进行了比较,结果表明:“政策市”下的企业投资更富“冒进性”.     

Program portfolio selection for reducing prioritized security risks

The methodology presented here solves an R&D program portfolio selection problem that arises in critical infrastructure protection and similar security risk reduction problems. It requires priorities to be assigned to the risks, existing risk levels to be assessed, and the effectiveness of alternative risk reduction programs to be estimated. A lexicographic optimization procedure involving mixed integer programming with preemptive priorities is developed and illustrated, and extensions are discussed.     

对偶理论在福利经济学中的应用

本文首先在效用函数为凹的条件下,建立了政府追求社会福利最大化和资源消耗最小化的优化模型,然后运用对偶理论证明了在政府调控下,社会福利的最大化和资源消耗的最小化能够同时实现,并给出了政府对不同收入消费者实行的个人所得税率与补贴率,最后指出社会福利最大化点是帕累托最优的,     

Assessing and managing credit risk in retail financial services

The paper reviews recent developments and future needs in modellingcredit risk in the retail portfolio and their recent regulatoryimplications, against the implications of the new frameworkproposed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. It introducesfour related papers arising from a conference held at the Bankof England in November 2000, before outlining the history ofthe requirements and the determination of the minimum capitalrequired by banks to cover credit risk on their assets. Therationale for the mathematics behind the proposed new international‘internal-ratings based approach,’ relying on banks'own models, is then briefly discussed, with relevant bibliographyfor further reading.     

政府补贴方式下排放许可交易生产优化

从学术上探讨了政府补贴方式下有排放许可交易的生产优化问题.分析了配额和补贴方式效果在管理上的差异,给出了补贴方式下的各经济核算关系及模型,给出了最低净化水平定理的证明;给出优化计算,求解了最优净化水平,并探讨了其与最优产量和企业最优收益间的关系;给出仿真计算,并对企业生产在这种支持方式下的优化管理进行了分析.研究表明:企业将对生产中产生的全部排放物进行相同净化水平α的处理时,所需要的处理费用最低;在线性反需求函数下,最优产量的变化量只与净化成本函数、排放交易价格、补助价格等几个量相关,最优收益与最优产量的平方成正比.     

基于博弈的网络团购供应链信任协调机制研究

随着网络团购的快速发展,失信问题日益突出,此问题若得不到解决,将严重制约网络团购的发展规模.分析了影响供应链成员间信任的因素,并在运用KMRW声誉模型进行有限次重复博弈的基础上,引入第三方信用监管机构,设计了相应的约束机制和激励机制.分析结果显示,声誉模型对交易双方信任合作提供隐性激励,建立长期战略合作关系,有利于机会主义的守约行为;第三方信用监管机构的介入可以约束交易双方的机会主义行为,减少他们之间的信息不对称,能够最大限度的减少网络团购交易中的风险.     

Introducing competition in healthcare services: The role of private care and increased patient mobility

We study the operational implications from competition in the provision of healthcare services, in the context of national public healthcare systems in Europe. Specifically, we study the potential impact of two alternative ways through which policy makers have introduced such competition: (i) via the introduction of private hospitals to operate alongside public hospitals and (ii) via the introduction of increased patient choice to grant European patients the freedom to choose the country they receive treatment at. We use a game-theoretic framework with a queueing component to capture the interactions among the patients, the hospitals and the healthcare funders. Specifically, we analyze two different sequential games and obtain closed form expressions for the patients’ waiting time and the funders’ reimbursement cost in equilibrium. We show that the presence of a private provider can be beneficial to the public system: the patients’ waiting time will decrease and the funders’ cost can decrease under certain conditions. Also, we show that the cross-border healthcare policy, which increases patient mobility, can also be beneficial to the public systems: when welfare requirements across countries are sufficiently close, all funders can reduce their costs without increasing the patients’ waiting time. Our analysis implies that in border regions, where the cost of crossing the border is low, “outsourcing” the high-cost country’s elective care services to the low-cost country is a viable strategy from which both countries’ systems can benefit.     

资源禀赋视角下政府与企业互动行为演化分析

针对政府与企业资源的异质性,从资源禀赋的视角,对政府与企业互动的不同模式(随机合作型、政策驱动型、技术推动型、协作共赢型)的界定与分析,构建政府与企业互动行为的演化博弈模型,明确政府与企业在不同模式下的互动行为演化路径。研究结果表明:政府与企业不同互动模式存在显著差异,不同类型企业与政府之间的互动对应着某种互动模式;不同互动模式的产生和演化契合政企互动关系的发展历程;协作共赢型互动模式是政府与企业互动行为演化的高级阶段,有利于政府与企业形成紧密的合作,激发政府政策资源与企业技术资源的协同效应。